Look Over There. Where? A Compositional Approach to Modeling Public Opinion on the Most Important Problem
(with Steven Jokinsky, Christine S. Lipsmeyer, Andrew Q. Philips, and Guy D. Whitten)
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objective
This study aims to test whether the American public is polarized and/or parallel in its assessments of the most important problem.
Methods
We use compositional time series models and new data on public opinion to test for differences between subgroups.
Results
We find inconsistent evidence of polarization for some issue areas but not others and remarkably robust evidence of parallel reactions across subgroups to economic and international shocks.
Conclusion
The U.S. public is remarkably consistent in terms of its assessments of the most important problem and in how subgroups shift their perceptions of issue importance in reaction to changing circumstances.